Investing


There’s just one word way to describe the Markets in June . It sucked. All the major indexes were down well over 5 percent. My own portfolio fared little better. I keep telling myself that I’m in it for the long haul. Eventually, I’ll have myself convinced.

Below is my historical performance for the last 6 months.


Brokerage Accounts: Accounts in which I pick individual stocks and some mutual funds. My IRA account(s) are amongst these accounts.
Asset Account: Accounts in which I managed on basic asset allocation principles. These accounts accounts consist of my 401k and Vanguard accounts.
All Classes: Total from all accounts

Today is the 3rd Friday in June. We all know that means. Or at least those who trade options. Options expire on the third Saturday of each month. However given that markets are closed on Saturday that effectively makes the expiration the Friday the day before.

I’m short two call contracts (controlling a total of 200 shares) on EWZ, the Brazilian iShares ETF, that expire today. These are “covered calls” as I actually own the underlying shares. I sold these calls over 6 months ago with a strike price of 90. Today EWZ has been trading between 90.12 and 91.73. If EWZ closes tonight at $90 or under, I can pocket my profit. However, if EWZ instead closes at anything above $90 I will likely get my shares of EWZ called away. I don’t want this to happen as I would effectively be selling my shares.

EWZ has been a star in my portfolio and a holding that I want to keep for the long haul. The ETF has returned over 100% since I brought it. I would be stuck with a tax bill in excess of $1000 if I were to sell right now, and given that I do want to hold the ETF it’s best not to create incremental tax bills until the day I really want to sell. That said I do believe that fund itself could face substantial downward pressure. Emerging markets have been a hot performer over the last few years, and I for one assume they are in bubble territory. That’s why I sold the calls originally and am likely to do so again. I’m willing to take profits from the volatility along the way if I can.

n.b. As I wrote this post, I ended up buying the calls back for $1. I potentially left $200 on the table if EWZ closes at 90 or below, but I feel better with the certainty that I will not have my shares called.

My investment update missed the big rally from yesterday, and big decline today. Given that yesterday and today are a wash, my results are actually quite current. May was an uneven month. The market neither rallied or tanked. Though the Nasdaq and the Dow diverged. The Nasdaq outperformed the Dow.

Below is my historical performance. I’ve added the the performance of my complete portfolio to the chart.


Brokerage Accounts: Accounts in which I pick individual stocks and some mutual funds. My IRA account(s) are amongst these accounts.
Asset Account: Accounts in which I managed on basic asset allocation principles. These accounts accounts consist of my 401k and Vanguard accounts.
All Classes: Total from all accounts

This is the long “awaited” last part of my five part series on Investing Basics. I last covered Mutual Funds I would not even categorize options or futures as basic. I personally do not invest directly in futures (at least not in my home portfolio). I dabble with options. Most people, I would think, can skip these and other derivative investments and be more than OK.

Both options and futures are considered derivatives. Warren Buffet has called derivivatives financial weapons of mass destruction. Of course, these are weapons that Mr. Buffet enjoys stockpiling. While it may seem on the surface inconsistent that Warren would slam derivatives one day, and praise their use the next, Berkshire Hathaway use of derivatives is completely consistent with it’s role as one of the largest insurers and re-insurers in the world. Selling insurance is not too different from selling options.

So what are derivatives? Derivatives encompass wide variety of financial products. Options, futures (forwards) and swaps constitute the vast majority of derivatives. Derivatives all have one thing in common. They are nothing in themselves. The value of any derivative contract is tied to the value of a real underlying product. In the case of stock options, the value of the option is directly tied to what a particular stock trades at. In this regard derivatives are the most akin to gambling. When you make a bet, the bet itself doesn’t have any intrinsic value. Rather the value is in the cards that are played, or who wins the basketball game. The bet is secondary to the actual event.

Options
So what is an option? An option is exactly what the name implies, it gives the owner of option the opportunity to buy or sell at a given price. A call option grants the right to buy, and a put option grants the right to sell. While a share of stock only really has one attribute – price, an call option on particular stock has number of attributes.

  • Price
  • Strike Price: The price at which you have the right to buy the shares – can be below or above the current stock price
  • Expiration Date: The date on which option become invalid.
  • There are two types of option expiration conventions, European and American. American options can be exercised on any date before the expiration date, and European options only on the expiration date. In practice, there is nary a difference as there’s almost no reason to ever exercise an option before expiration. By excercising an option, you’ve basically given up the value of the “option” to exercise.

    Below is chart of example value of call option with a strike price of 20 given the trading value of the underlying stock.


    An option will never be worth less than 0, and at all points should have some value reflecting the option premium, and the intrinsic value. For example if the stock is trading at 20 and the strike price is 20, the option premium might be $2. $2 reflect the value of having the right to buy the stock for $20. The intrinsic value at that time is 0 because there’s no value in exercising the option to buy at $20 when the stock can actually be had for $20. However if the stock were to move to $30, then the intrinsic value would be $10. I could use my option buy the stock for $20, and turnaround and sell it for $30 – instant $10 profit.

    Futures
    Futures are standardized forward contracts. Forward contracts have two of the same components as an option. 1) Price 2) Date. Unlike an option a forward contract is an obligation to transact at a certain price. In many regards an option is modified forward contract. A future is a forward contract in standard form and can be traded on an exchange. For example oil futures that are traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange have given specifications for method of delivery, quantity, and the type of product.

    So a if I were to buy an oil future for $200 a barrel with a delivery date of June 2009, in June 2009 I would be obligated to pay $200 a barrel even if oil prices at the time were $50. Forward and future contracts developed originally in the agricultural world to allow producers and users to get price certainty for goods that would be delivered later. Many companies such as Airlines still use futures to hedge future uncertainty, but there are just as many investors who buy and sell futures purely for financial reasons.

    I’m a little late on my investment update as I’ve been trying to get it out around the 1st of the month. The month of April pretty much continued how it started. The market rallied while I lagged relative to market. My lagging is not very surprising given that I have quite few put options on the NASDAQ and the DOW. Those haven’t worked out very well recently, but I guess that’s what hedges are for.

    I am finally up for the year. Almost all of that can be attributed to the calls on AAPL that continue to race onward an upward. Last month AAPL shot past $150. The stock is up above $180 now….

    Now that I have a few months of data for my historical performance chart, it’s actually beginning to look like something.

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