AskDong

Just wanted to wish everyone a merry Christmas, and hoping everyone is having a great one with family and friends.

Also, wanted to let everyone know that I’m still kicking around.  Just haven’t had much time or focus on the blog.   Currently I’m rethinking exactly what I want to do with the blog.   Stay tuned for slight change in focus and format in the coming year.   What that will be, I have no idea.

I’m at home right now, having taken the day off on well deserved single day respite. I’ve been extremely busy at work the past few weeks.  Hence, the paucity of posts.   Up to this past weekend when I traveled for Easter,  I had worked 21 days straight.   I had worked as late as midnight on some days.  In other words, I worked as much as lazy associate at a big law firm.

While It’s certainly makes sense that I would post less becuase work was taking up so much of time, to use work as complete excuse is not really true.  It’s not like I’ve done nothing over the past 4 weeks but work.  I’ve gone out to dinner with friends,  I’ve played bar trivia, I’ve drafted a fantasy baseball team, I’ve celebrated birthdays, I planned a vacation, I had dinner at home with my parents, I’ve watched TV - I’ve managaed to do quite a few things.  What I haven’t devoted much time to is this blog.

While I enjoy writing this blog, and derive a fair amount of satisfaction from it being read, it doesn’t score very well on the the following three categories.

1. Making Time - I don’t make time for it.  I never set aside
2. Priorities - It’s not a priority.  You can argue that you make time for priorities, but sometimes priorities are things that you’re willing to drop everything else for.
3. Mental Energy - Writing this blog takes a suprising amount of mental energy.  It’s not something I want to do after a long day of work.

I started this blog with the hope that I could post regularly, daily even, but I’ve found over the last  year that I just don’t have the mental energy to do so.    The blog is not a priority in the same way work, family and friends are, and it shouldn’t be.    When I was posted more frequently it wasn’t because it was a higher priority, or I made time for it.   I just had more mental energy, though mental energy is closely linked with having time.  

I think it’s likely over the next few months I’ll have a bit more mental energy as busy work season winds down a bit, and with that posts should become more frequent again.  If not, you’ll know why.

Noah, an avid read, pointed me to this rather interesting graph.

So the question is, “am I to blame to for the current Market downturn?”  While I like to believe that my blog is both widely read and immensely influential, the reality does not support this hypothesis.

So is there any relationship between my blog and the market?  The obvious answer and the one supported by Occam’s razor - is not at all.  It’s just a coincidence.   However, if we statistically look at the relationship of my blog posts and the Dow between July 2007 and now, there actually is quite a bit of correlation.  The correlation of my monthly posts to the monthly Dow close is a remarkable .85.

This is statistical correlation.   However as we should all know, taking statistics and graphs at face value is almost a guaranteed way to be misled.   It’s almost always possible to selectively pick numbers, and graphs only prove the point that one wants to prove.  So while there may be statistical correlation between the number of posts and the Dow, there’s unlikely any “real” correlation.

Actual correlation would imply a predictive relationship between the Dow and my postings.  For example one would be able to predict the level of Dow by knowing how many posts I will write next week.  Sadly this is not the case.  There’s no correlation, and certainly no causal relationship between the Dow and the count of my posts.  This is not to say there couldn’t be any correlation.  It’s possible that I write less because of work related stress which in turn could be related the overall financial markets.  If that were the case, I would expect how much I write on this blog to be correlated with the Dow.  The Dow and volume of my writing while not having a direct causal relationship would have relationship to an underlying variable, the economy.  That’s a conjecture.  What I am sure of though, is that how much I write has no impact on how the Dow closes.

I’m back from a very lovely vacation in costa rica. As always expect a few different reviews in the next few weeks. Today I just want to take the time to share some photos from the vacation. All in all, I was very impressed by my experience with both the country and people of costa rica. I also found greater appreciation for the history of central America, and embaraaament over how little I know about a region of the world that is so close to the United States.

I will have a few more phtos to share once I’m back at my own computer, and have more time.  I’m still digging out from a deluge of backlog, and a cold

Worry not readers, I’m not becoming a professional blogger anytime soon. However, it seems many of my more successful compatriots are. I read the other day that Trent at The Simple Dollar turned in his letter of his resignation. Who would’ve seen that coming? <END SARCASM> I thought Trent was long overdue. He’s successful blogger who clearly has demonstrated an ability to monetize his blog, but more importantly keep his spending down. He knows what his priorities are: his Ninentdo Wii, kids, and some tasty meals. Not necessarily in that order. He joins other bloggers like J.D. at Get Rich Slowly and Lazy Man (though Lazy Man did not do it quite out of his own volition) on trying to make it a go as an independent. Others such as Flexo at Consumerist Commentary remain on the Fence.

Given that I don’t read too many blogs other than personal finance blogs, I’m not sure how common it is for bloggers to go “pro”. That said I’m not surprised that so many succesful personal finance bloggers have gone pro. The mentality that leads one to write a blog on personal finance is the exactly the mentality that it takes to escape the 9 to 6 rat race. What are some of these qualities?

• A Plan
• Frugality
• A desire for independence

Personal finance bloggers even if they love their jobs almost always have a strong desire to be financially independent. This is what drives them to frugality. This I also think what leads them to write public blogs. They want their voice to be heard above the crowd, and may cause them to dislike working under the structure of most corporations.

It is highly unlikely that I will join the ranks of financially self sufficient personal finance blogerss anytime in the near future. While I may be on my way to becoming a six figure blogger, it’s six figures in Mongolian Turgiks. While I like to believe I share some of the same qualities as these independent bloggers, I also realize I have still few more things I like to accomplish at work before I could even consider doing something else. I believe blogging will be part of that something else someday, but I’ve got some other plans for that something else as well.