October 2009


A recent CNN article highlighted the fact that nearly 47% of Americans do not pay taxes.  Who are these unamerican Americans?  That question is both harder to answer, and one that probably tells a different story than the headline 47%.

I’ve always had a problem with single statistics not put in a context, and often these days any statistic related to income or taxes seem contructed to raise the ire of the combating forces of the great class war.  Of course the problem is that over 50% of American think of themselves of as middle clasa without consideration to what they actually earn.   Someone making over 150k is about equally likely as someone making less than 20k to call themselves middle class.  No wonder the “middle class” seems to be able to agree that all the ”greedy pigs on Wall Street are taking all the riches while the lazy wreches at the bottom are living the good life on the backs of the tax dollars of us hard working Americans.”  Too bad life is not a simple of matter of hating someone else.

When I first read that 47% of Americans did not pay federal income taxes, I was take aback.  It seemed awfully high, and higher than what I thought it should be.   However, I took a step to think about it, and thought about the people I knew filing taxes but not paying any federal taxes.  One set quickly popped into my head.  My parents.  My parents who are both retired paid nothing in federal income taxes last year.  They don’t make very much at this point in the their lives - Social Security and minimum withdrawals from their IRA account.   I imagine of that 47% not paying taxes, many of them are like my parents, retired individuals with limited income with a long history of income taxes paid.   Given that 12% and growing of the U.S. population is over 65+, this it not a great stretch of the imagination.

On the other age spectrum, I imagine there are students and recent graduates barely scraping by who undoubtably pay very little or more likely nothing towards the federal coffers.   Nearly 13% of the U.S. population is between the age of 20 and 29.  Old enough to be filing taxes, but unlikely to be making large amounts of money.    Taken that the very old and the very young might be nearly 50% of the 47% not paying taxes, the remaining 22% does not seem that much at odds with my sense of equity.   Too bad the CNN article doesn’t answer the more interesting question, “What percentage of Americans never pay taxes?”

As the rally continues, I trail the market for this year more and more. I’m a non-believer. I think the stock market has gotten ahead of the real economy. Personally, I’m at about where I was before the crash, and I count myself lucky for that. Going forward while I continue to be predominantly invested, I’ve begun to acquire some put options on both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 to hedge my position.

With these options in place I expect that my overall portfolio is likely to move sideways regardless of what the actual market does. I’m willing to take this certainty in what I think remain uncertain times.

We have averted a real crisis, and the economy is I think in reasonable shape. However, there is still a financial reckoning. I believe the days of unfettered consumer debt are over as it should be. The end of easy credit however means that consumption will be down, and consumption is 70% of economy.

Locations of visitors to this page
Design Downloaded Then Modified from WPThemes.Info