The last 2 months in the stock market have felt like a return to the heydays of 1996 when Alan Greenspan so famously spooked the market with his proclamation of “Irrational Exuberance.”  Of course the market quickly forgot and rode one bubble (the tech) to the next (real estate).

I can’t but feel that we’re taking a mule ride up a rather unsteady path in the dark of night, not knowing if the next step is off a cliff.   There is legitimate good news on the economic front.  We are not facing another great depression, it seems as we have learned some economic lessons from the last.  The economy is only contracting at lesser rate than it was a few months ago.  The Economy is not healed, it’s just not losing as much as blood.  I think this should be obvious when you have less people employed, it’s hard to lay off as many people.

The stock market has responded to the less dire news with glee and joy.  We’re nowhere near the highs from early last year, but we’re far above the lows of mid March.   Who knows if we rally further from here or test new lows?   I certainly don’t.   Still, my gut feeling is that we’ll pullback as investors realize while things are not as bad as they may have looked, they’re still not good.   That’s a good thing.   I wish the economy the best, but I also want economy to recover slowly via increased savings, and healthy investment in business.  I don’t want another bubble, sustained by excess consumer spending and unconstained speculation.